is Don is Good No?

Since the Don has been elected, the market has been on a bit of a tear, everyone seems in awe of his ability to govern via twitter.
I am your voice, he said, all the way through the campaign.
i don't think anything could be further from the truth
It amazing what he got away with.
looking at the new reality of a post truth world, i guess its what we have  become accustomed too.
but i cant help but feel there will be a huge disappointment surface over his term as people basically wake up to the fact they have been sold a pup.
Don will keep building resorts and hotels, with little regard for the battling American.

Democracy is probably dead, well at least dying, or loosing its relevence.
the end of the second world war was when things rapidly changed, and technologies and industrialization started accelerating.

plenty of evidence it abandoned the common man a long time ago.
the reality is globalization has changed the way all democracies and governments interact with each other and their citiizens.
 my friend Paul Haskins has just handed me 2  great works by Joe Bageant, Deere hunting with Jesus "dispatches from Americas rednecks class war, and his more recent work a rainbow pie, a redneck memoir.
these books are a great read, Bageant eloqently steps you through his life, and struggles, with a passion and love of his people that have walked a similar journey.
its an impressive interpretation and insight into how Americans think, and how we as a soscity have reached this point.

some interesting numbers, are that roughly 40 million Americans turn up to vote, but over 70 million own a gun.
but its more than just owning a gun, its a survival thing that came out of extreme povity, if you owned a gun, you could go Deere hunting and Grow your own vegetables, so your family was fed.
And the self suffiecency, gave you a sense of pride and independance, that meant you werent a burden on society.
http://www.alternet.org/story/148237/bitter_tales_from_the_massive_white_underclass_in_joe_bageant's_%22redneck%22_memoir

i think like us in Australia the elitists in power in the US have underestimated and ignored the common man too long.
seems to be a global phenomenon, but is that the problem, or is it Globalization and the rise of companies like google, apple, amazon, facebook, have much more effect on the population than any government could dream off.

But no point complaining, in fact we have to just get on with things forget governments and invest wisely, 

things arent changing anytime soon, as technology keeps marching on and accelerating

If you bought 1,000 Amazon shares in 1997 (after stock splits, you’d now have 12,000 shares), it would have set you back about US$1,500.

If you had done nothing but sit on those shares for 20 years, it’d be worth US$9.24 million today.

so lets look for the next amazon! 

highway robbery | doctors need to listen to their patients | cannon fodder

I probably should apologize for change to blatant existentialism on my life rather than the stock market, that this blog has become, but I have an excuse, I have been having another battle with melanoma.

After recently having a couple of tumors reappear in my lungs I have been on radiation therapy.

All this had been going reasonably successfully for 6 weeks, with the main tumor shrinking, but I was noticing I wasn't feeling well in myself, in fact feeling quite ill, with flue like symptoms and back ache.

The unfortunate outcome was I had a car accident late that afternoon, lucky no one was hurt!

So I got my wife to take me to outpatients for a check
I had been trying to get into the GP doctor, or a specialist, but wasn’t being listened to by the medical profession.GP was too busy, oncologist couldn’t see me till after Christmas, and radiologist said he looked at my scan and said everything was OK.So off I went to work. I write this reluctantly because I feel after all the help I have had, I don't want to be labelled as ungrateful.But having led a very active life, with medical check-ups for a pilot’s licence, I’m not in the habit of going to a doctor unless I need one, and given that background, with melanoma, wouldn’t you think it sensible to see this patient?
k-up, luckily I did, within an hour I had had a seizure, and was on an air ambulance to Melbourne for scans and treatment.

The scan revealed 2 tumors on my brain with a couple of smaller ones on my spine.

I guess that explains the symptoms doctors?

Anyway probably no point going on about it, as the outcome would probably been the same, but it might have prevented a car accident, and why do doctors assume they know more than the patient?

But its important to put my thoughts down so people that im enjoying life with, have a bit of an understanding of why I am a bit melancholy at some stages, and maybe a doctor might listen.

Your life , my life all our lives are pretty similar, you work consistently and persistently to make your life better, for yourself and your family, and as you work hard, the fruits come!

I have have been lucky to have been born into the best family possible,  in the best country  possible at what is probably the best time possible, and meeting the best bride possible ( had to sneak that one in.)

So life so far has been fantastic with a rising living standard,  even having my own aeroplane to fly around in.

Of course I spent 40 year working bloody hard to have this all happen!

Then along came melanoma, at first it seemed a bit of an annoyance, had the mole removed, and move on.
But then it comes back in lymph nodes when it was diagnosed as malignant and I had to have a full auxiliary clearance, things start to gel in your mind that this is serious.
Then it comes back in your lungs, and you realize its bloody serious!

Then your life gets a bit harder, your at the doctor, being refereed to specialists and you start to get robbed of things.
You no longer have any hope of passing a medical for your pilots licence, your most treasured accomplishment is stripped from you without any ceremony!

Probably a bit dramatic, my most treasured accomplishment should be the birth of my children!

Yes well of course it is, sorry,  I was getting ahead of myself, whoops forgot about mentioning meeting a very special person that became my wife!!!.

But you get the drift, your dreams of achieving great things get crushed, there is a finality to things that stifles all your enthusiasm as i am in Melbourne having a couple of brain lesions removed, i am starting to wonder how long i have, and there goes my drivers licence

So this to me is the greatest challenge of cancer, reinventing yourself to survive the challenge, and remain a little bit sane.
so setting short term goals will be the priotity, more fishing and cricket with the grandchildren if im capable,

My son and his wife are expecting their first baby, in Feb 2017, so that has to be the immediate first goal, I can’t think of anything as special as that.

One thing that is of concern is I won’t make it.

My paternal grandfather died just shortly before I was born, so it would be bloody ironic if it happened for this generation as well.

Looking back at my grandfathers life I came across a world war 1 diary of his and his Brothers about their involvement in the war.

Reading it makes me feel like I need to harden up, and just get on with how lucky I am.

Jack I’Anson my grandfather managed to survive the war, but was badly gassed, so would have had a pretty ordinary life when he got home.

Poor Reg, was killed, only really a kid, killed in action as an ambulance man.

The diary talks of them meeting up for some leave whilst over there, then a few days later Jack receives the news that his Brother Reg had been killed.

Thinking about it, these boys would have been on an adventure of a lifetime that turned into absolute tragedy.

JACK I'ANSON'S  WORLD WAR 1. RECORD

BRIEF & ROUGH RECORD OF HIS WHEREABOUTS IN FRANCE/BELGIUM

(Guessed at some spelling)

16.12.1916   Sailed from Port Melbourne 

17.2.1917     Disembarked at Plymouth

                     Training at Windmill Camp

24.7.17         Reg arrived unexpectedly for 10 days furlough (must have been     

                     when their photos together were taken in London.)

24.8.1917     Left Windmill Camp England for France

26.8.1917     Arrived Havre

1.9.17           Travelled thro Boulong Etaple,Calais, Lumbra

3.9.17           Mielles-Les- Belguim

11.9.17         Monash inspected ranks

18.9.17         Trip to the seaside to bathe

25.9.17         Merk St. Lieven 27th Laitre St. Vestines

2.10.17         Ypres  Leaving for the front line

4.10.17         ZERO HOUR

6.10.17         Back to Ypres

Oct 8              Amiens - carrying shells etc up to the front line and met the

                     58th Battalion on their way home and  received the sad news    

                     that  Reg had been killed on their last go in on 24.9.17

9.10.17         Preparing to move up and hop over at Paschendale.

12.10.17       HELL  - Paschendale Ridge.

13.10.17       Armistace to collect wounded.

15.10.17       Marched to Ypres, returned to Belguim

19.10.17       Marched to Desvier for a hot bath

24.10.17       Gazette Lance Corporal

10.11.17       Left Belguim then to Desviers & then by bus to La Molle 30

                     miles

11.11.17       Bulleon to trenches  Dyse

13.11.17       Several narrow escapes

3.11.17         At Roman Camp

14.12.17       Then Roman line then Bailleul

22.12.17       Steinmarck

31.12.17       Off to Neuve

25.1.18         Off to trenches

10.2.18         Raids at Warmeton then La Basser. Relieved on 31,1,18

4.2.19           Quarters at Catacombes

12.2.18         Back to Lines

16.2.18         Relieved and at Lewshan Lodge

28.2.18         Holiday in England 14 days

11.3.18         Left Dover for Calais then St Omer-Neille, Le Belguin

                                                       2.

22.3.18       Marched to  Lumbres, train to Billinghem, marched to

                   Wardrecques.

25.3.18       Expect to go to the Somme, march to St. Omer then long train

                   ride -rations for 4 days - Travelled south to Somme. St. Pol,

                   Doulbens.  Detrain at Mendicourt- all in a panic- French civies       

                   all fleeing.  Kept moving.

29.3.18      4th Platoon going over with 46th to take a wood- moved to

                  Buires and rested.

2.4.18        Moved off to trenches - Hell for 4 days then to Ribermont

12.4.18      Heilly for a bath, then from Ribermont near Treux between Ancy         

                  and  Somme rivers.

20.4.18      Treux  Big  attack with a big win - took hundreds of machine   

                  guns and  2000 prisoners.

28.4.18      8 days rest at Tranveilers.

9.5.18        Allenville

22.5.18      Moved to S.E. Veiller-Bretonneux  - 3.6.18   Still there

FRIDAY  7th  Memories, Anniversary. (Didn't say of what but it was the first            

                   anniversary of their first night fighting at the front line)

10.6.18      Raid at Villers Bretonneux Tunneling  E. of V.B. - relieved and

                  went thro Amis and back to Querriea for a rest.

12.7.18      Hamel - many prisoners.  Much fighting.

2.8.18        Still at Hamel.

7.8.18        Stunt very successful

8 & 9 .18    Luscan Wood - a mad stunt - very fatal to them

10.8.18      Proyart

12.8.18      Moved to Susan Wood.

21.8.18      Rumours of another stunt Albert to Somme, moved to Bray

                  Croble road.

22.8.18      Stunt proceeded

          

                  Last entry as he was gassed and sent to England to recover in           

                  Beaufort War Hospital 30.8.18- 8.10.18.                     

                  War ended 11.11.1918                        

  

It was bloody pitiful really when you consider that they were only ever considered cannon fodder by the British elite.

so Christmas this year will be special, hopefully i will make it, and get on with some planning.

The Demise of Quality Journalism and the associated emergence and tolerance of The Dunning Kruger effect.

I can't help but thinking that we are suffering an epidemic of the Kruger Dunning Effect, and I think Facebook and social media has a lot to answer for.

Wikipedia

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of those of low ability to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.^[1]

Dunning and Kruger have postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in those of low ability, and external misperception in those of high ability: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."^[1]

And unfortunately there is a lot of it about.

A certain male American Presidential candidate comes to mind, but we can be proud not to be upstaged by the yanks, we have Pauline Hanson!

I long for the days you could pick up a newspaper and an intelligent journalist would tear these people to bits.
But alas they are mostly long gone.
Hardly anyone under 40 buys a newspaper anymore, relying on social media to supply their news, which is pretty much a fact free zone. God help them!

This is a big issue, the price of democracy is eternal vigulence!
our modern democracies for the last 100 years have depended on Journalists and independent newspapers to provide us with the "truth" or at least a forum to debate intelligently!

I fondly remember Peter Ruele of Australian Financial Review, I wish he was still alive, there would be no way Trump would get away with his Dunning Kruger ways, Ruele would have torn him apart and we would have been amused, entertained, and more importantly educated and informed!
in my opinion not much truth or intelligent debate on social media!

But maybe im a grumpy old man that's lost touch?

Its unlikely to change, so better just get on with it and manage things.

Its a lot like life, having recently relapsed with drugs failing and tumors moving again, I have to rethink my strategy.
Having just finished 5 weeks of radiation therapy, feels like im wearing lead boots, certainly saps your energy.
Hopefully it has given me a bit more time, and im grateful for the medical professions help and expertise.
I have also been offered a new trial treatment, I am also very grateful for, but working out if its a smart thing to take on isn't easy.

My challenge with the stock market and my health is to not fall victim to the Dunning Kruger effect, and start to think Im smarter than I actually am!

Having recently completed an options trading course, I realize Im not smart enough to succeed there.
Building Click for info Iron Condors sounds smart, and is probably a reasonable strategy for generating income, but you would need unlimited time to manage, so not for me, Truth is im a bit too worried it might prove I suffer from the Dunning Kruger syndrome!!

So for me I will continue to look for good companies that run good businesses.

since July I have sold half my gold stocks and bought

: ANZ.AU, Anz Bank, I think our banks are oversold
: ISD.AU, Isentia, social media monitoring company, if everyones on it,  why not have a company that's making a dollar out of all this rubbish!!
:CFG.AU, Collins Food Group, who doesn't like KFC!!!

see performance page

Is Brexit the end of the world?

10 Year Chart All Ords ASX

The end of the financial year has been and gone, so time for a review.
Brexit is happening, and could spread to other countries in the area, the  EU could fall apart over the next 2 or 3 years, who knows.

Pauline Hanson has made a comeback!

Donald Trump could end up in the white house?

So plenty to worry about.

But good companies still make profits, and pay dividends.
So probably more of the same going forward, more of a stock pickers market, so just need to focus on companies with no debt and good cash flows.

looking at the good the bad and the ugly decisions I have made in stock purchases, some have disappointed some have come good and some are where they were 18 months ago.
The same as the market, see the table below.

Since starting the performance page, I have logged the stock price at purchase against the ASX index on the day of purchase and averaged out, I was amazed exactly 0 % gain for the index. and over 10 years, we are about where we started!

My portfolio performance averaging  a 54 % gain for the same period. throw in a few dividends I haven't included, and not bad at all!
So im pretty happy with that, all be it heavily dependent on the gold stocks that excelled.

Sitting on some cash after downsizing, i think its a great time to buy some more.

Not a big fan of gold but will keep as insurance, interesting the market has finally woken up to IGOs Gold deposits, so finally getting over the pain!!

I still like the internet stocks, REA and CAR have done well, but its an area that's difficult to pick winners.

Doing some research on ETFs to get exposure to google and apple, like the UMAX.AX
looks good with over 6 % dividend.

So in 18 months we have had a lot thrown at us, with plenty more to come in the next 18 months, so what do you do?
I don't think there's much point in waiting for things to be perfect.
Good stocks will still do very well, bad stocks will under perform.
Just a matter of working through the rubbish, and moving on.

Iron Ore and Energy In The Pilbura

As part of our Laparoundoz i have been pretty keen to get a first hand look at mining operations.

So had a good look at Karratha/Dampier and Port Hedland.

The Pilbara is where we the rubber meets the road so to speak, for Iron Ore, and where Australian makes a large slice of its export dollars, so whats going on here?

The conventional wisdom is that mining is dead, iron ore, oil, copper, any commodity you name is in oversupply, so why bother looking at it. 

But like most things it will cyclical, and the world still need all these commodities, so who will win and who will go broke? 

The share prices of all players are at historical low levels.

The industry here is massive, on the Rio Tinto mine tour at Mt Tom Price, the tour director gave us a few numbers

Rail system has 30 trains each with 30,000  capacity, so if half going to port and half going back 450,000 tonnes heading to port at any one time, travel time 4 to 5 hours.

If you are going to pick winners, Rio seem to have a very efficient operation in the Pilbara, and with most of the infrastructure built, they look  hard to beat.

Rios cost of producing and delivering to port is $23.50 (source Rio Tinto tour director)

with current prices that have risen to around $60, that makes a pretty profitable business. 

Even though they pay their train drivers approx $240k a year and truck drivers $150 k a year.

(Why didn’t I become a train driver, I wanted to when I was 5)

But that is changing, Rio is investing millions in new technology, the new mines  that Rio develop are autonomous, so no truck drivers required. Trains soon will soon all be all autonomous, to efficiency just gets better.

BHP and Fortescue have their rail networks in as well, but seem a bit behind in the technology stakes, but hard to get numbers on.

That leaves a problem for the

Rail Ownership Pilbura

juniors, like Atlas and Mt Gibson.

Although they are lobbying for access to the rail network, the network is already busy, and I don’t imagine the existing players letting them in, 

Rio have lifted production in the last few years , target was to lift from 240 million tonnes to 360 mt, they actually achieved 340 million tonnes, so a great effort.

In the Energy sector, Karratha is Woodsides WPL Home.The new offshore rigs are pretty much unmanned and automatic.

Went to Woodsides visitor centre in Dampier.

Woodsides North West Shelf Projects site, a $34 Billion Investment.

Its massive, and now its running is pumping Gas 24 hrs a day.I have recently bought a few more Woodside shares at just under $30, but they are still a bit underwater.However having seen this project, this will be a cash cow for Woodside WPL for many years, certainly gave me a lot more confidence in them!

So after spending some time here, and if i was going to pick winners, and put some money away for a few years, i think an investment in Rio Tinto RIO for Iron Ore and Woodside WPL for energy, might look a good investment in 5 years time.

x

Donald Trump and Gold

Gold seems to be having another run, doesn't really make any sense, but when did the stock market make sense.

Maybe its Donald Trump who's inspiring it? Article Wall Street Journal

Hes put some nervousness into the market!

Certainly gold in $AUD is back to its all time highs, so Australian gold companies are in a sweet spot.

Certainly been a big help to my portfolio, when most others have been underwater!

Ive never been inspired by gold, but you need some in a portfolio, as it can help when things go bad.
That is the last few months!
But I would you buy now?

Who knows, but I'm happy with gains so will just sit tight in the gold sector. see performance page

I think last checked there were 150 gold companies on the ASX, and only a handful wotth looking at that are making money, so be careful

But we should be looking for companies thrust aside at the moment a bit like Gold companies 18 months ago.
The most unloved sector at the moment is Oil!

We have had a bit of a bounce, but who would have predicted 5 years ago we would have oil prices as low as they are?

Charles Morris book Comeback, previously mentioned on this blog, predicated this a couple of years ago, so is still worth a read.

I like Woodside,  although they have been disappointing, so put on hold, don't think I need any more, but still making money in a tough environment.

Because I am travelling near Carnarvon on "The Lap AroundOz",  Had a look at an oldie, Carnarvon Petroleum, CVN,  they look cashed up again, 100m Source Financial times. maybe worth a punt if your real game!

But I still like the disruptive businesses,like Carsales.com , Realestate.com, Nearmap, Seek,
Their earning per share are still rising, oil companies are still struggling to survive.

So why make it hard yourself? will add to them over the next month, but also happy to hold Woodside at this price.

Cooperatives in The Stock Market

I don't know why it is that Australian Agricultural companies that love burning shareholders funds, they are better than the average gold miner at doing it!.

The latest is the Murray Goulburn situation that has cost unit holders at least half of their capital so far.

You would wonder how they got this so wrong with the boom in Baby milk products going to China.

Murray Goulburn have announced a 15% reduction in the price paid to producers, so plenty of pain there, given that the low prices they were getting were probably already below break even!
And given almost zero allocation for irrigation in northern Victoria, many will not survive.

And this is the good news! it looks like they are still borrowing heavily to pay for it.
The plan is to fund it by growing the debt to nearly $600 Million, over the next couple of years, and ask the farmers to pay it back in the form of lower milk prices when things come good.
Scouce Australian Financial Review Murray Goulburn Problems

So unless there is a serious improvement in the global oversupply situation, I don't think there is a lot of hope for unit holders.

The farmers are probably taking most of the pain, as you would imagine they put up most of the $500 million in the unit trust float, but some will be Institutional or Mum and Dad investors and they will rightly feel misled and deceived.

The question should be "should cooperatives be allowed on the ASX"?
There is always this conflict when you have A and B Class shareholders.
The charter of a coop is always to maximize returns to the producer, (A class Shareholder).
Unfortunately the B class shareholder will always miss out in tough times.

It doesn't really matter, they can argue as much as they like, the proof is in the result.
You should avoid owning stocks with this type of share ownership structure, as it has proven in other primary production areas.
Its the ambiguity, and smoke and mirrors style of listing that annoys me, who owns what?
What is an A class share, what is a B class share,
Who has a vote?

Think AWB, 2005 price of Just over $6.00, de listed in 2010 at $1.49.

Makes you wonder who's going to fund this so called dining boom in China, that we are supposed to be enjoying, we are at risk of stuffing it up!

And I doubt there will be much of a queue to throw money at this mob!

Why should we invest, even at a low price, do we have any confidence in the plan?
And i cant see the institutions risking their shareholders funds, it would be irresponsible!

And why would you invest in Agriculture in Australia if your an ordinary investor, might as well buy a mining company and watch them go broke!

At least as a shareholder with an ordinary share, you get a say at The AGM!

But its pretty serious for the farming family's involved, they will be the ones that take the pain!

Strangely enough the main news story was the Parramatta Eels salary cap controversy, that will cost the nation bugger all!

Nothing about a problem in one of our few successful industries!