Bear and Gear Market ETF

Another tough week, or nice pullback depending on your cash position!

Market has given up all its gains for the year.

Companies like Carsales CRZ and Realestate.com REA probably the cheapest on a PE basis they have been for a long time, so you would think we must soon get some bargain hunters back into the market.

CSL has weathered the storm pretty well.

Given that market volatility is back, should we just buy the BEAR etf on the way down, and the GEAR etf on the way up.

Problem is these instruments are pretty new to our market, so back testing is a bit difficult.

Challenge is picking the trend and get in and out early, otherwise by the products nature they average out.

We seem oversold,  so a bit late for the BEAR, unless Ebola in Africa, becomes a black swan event.

If we are near a bottom, which I think is likely , GEAR might do quite well for a short punt.

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/geared-fund/#each-overview

I put market timing in the too hard basket , and believe that you are still better picking quality companies, and sticking to them, but its hard when everyone's running for the doors!

Has been some increased activity in Gold stocks, so have kept position in MML as it looked oversold.

Gold watch list is still down 7.2% since looked at 2 weeks ago. see gold watchlist page



BEAR.AX



GEAR.AX

Performance		27/09/2014
Code	Company	Buy date	buy price	current	profit loss	all ords performance adjusted to purchase date	all ords at time of purchase	Sell Date	Sell price
EPW	ERM Power Ltd	21/05/2014	$1.91	$1.92	0.5%	-1.6%	5401	22/8/2014	$1.92
CCL	Coca Cola Amitel	26/05/2014	$9.69	$9.16	-5.5%	-3.2%	5490	22/8/2014	$9.16
SEA	Sundance energy	26/05/2014	$1.04	$1.30	25.6%	-3.2%	5490	15/8/2014	$1.30
WTF	Wotif.com	28/05/2014	$2.42	$3.33	37.6%	-3.5%	5506	11/7/2014	$3.34
SEA	Sundance energy	31/07/2014	$1.32	$1.30	-1.5%	-5.5%	5623	15/8/2014	$1.30
CRZ	Caresales.com	23/05/2014	$10.53	$10.14	-3.7%	-1.6%	5403
REA	Realestate.com	28/05/2014	$44.19	$43.38	-1.8%	-3.5%	5506
SUL	Supercheap auto	7/07/2014	$9.16	$8.31	-9.3%	-3.5%	5506
TRS	The Reject Shop	7/07/2014	$9.66	$9.04	-6.4%	-3.5%	5506
CSL	CSL Limited	15/07/2014	$68.55	$73.50	7.2%	-3.3%	5495
CTD	Corporate Travel Man	15/07/2014	$6.55	$7.46	13.9%	-3.3%	5495
FLT	Flight Centre	15/07/2014	$45.84	$43.07	-6.0%	-3.3%	5495
BRG	Breville Group	27/08/2014	$7.24	$7.01	-3.2%	-5.9%	5648
BSL	Bluescope Steel	27/08/2014	$5.42	$5.48	1.1%	-5.9%	5648
AGI	Ainsworth gaming	3/09/2014	$3.41	$2.96	-13.2%	-6.0%	5654
MML	Medusa Mining	15/09/2014	$1.09	$0.89	-18.3%	-2.9%	5473
							5316	AORD	27/09/2014
		Stockgrumble performance			1.1%	-3.8%	AORD Performance