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Friday 4 December 2015

Sunscreen a Big Hat and Pricing power | Lessons learnt in 2015


Coming up to the end of the year so good time to look at stocks, and learn some lessons

The brutality continues for anyone that issues a profit downgrade.
Good market for value investors if you think the companies can work through their issues.

Slater and Gordon down 80 %
Dick Smith down 80%
Spotless  down 40%

So Lessons learnt in 2015

1. Always wear sunscreen and a big hat!

2. The price takers have been smashed, look for price makers.
and companies that have a big moats, think like 

Phillip Fisher, common stocks Uncommon Profits.
He was Buffets mentor, and many others, 
Probably should look at stocks owned, and ask the question, would Phillip Fisher buy them.

3. Quantitative easing has miss priced the cost/ reward for risk, so we need to be careful with a few dividend payers.

4. Will  BHP, FMG fortesque, WPL woodside be a yield trap?  perhaps be wary of anyone that borrows money to pay a dividend.

Shifts in Spending.

Baby boomers were spenders, example my wife, just loves shopping and spending money!
Millennials are not Spenders, example my son, doesn't even buy a newspaper, comes around to my place and reads mine.
But they do consume, just differently, internet savvy, use technology to save money, price conscious and looking for value for money.
So look for companies that are servicing their requirements, and have exposure to them.

So there are shifts in spending as the baby boomers retire, some of the old businesses that depend on Baby boomers spending are in strife, think Myers and some old retailers, 

Cost cutting will be an ongoing and we may have to learn to live with deflation.
Can we shrink our way to success?

So looks like a stock pickers market going forward, looking at my portfolio, it looks a bit sick if we are going to depend on commodities, so might have to look for the Millennials for our salvation, God help us!!











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