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Monday 25 May 2015

Dear 16 year old me, and eternal vigulence.

 
 
This is very confronting for me as I struggle with  melanoma that has now spread to my lungs, but its very important that you share it with all your friends and family, as its a disease with much better outcomes if treated early, but very difficult when it spreads, make sure all your family and friends see this and do something about it, GET A SKIN CHECKUP NOW!
 
It has some confronting parallels with our investing life also, if we were 16 again, we would put more effort into investing, but lets not get too melancholy, its not over till its over! as Tolkin said, so lets get on with it.
 
 
 
Which brings me to talk about not only my folly of not checking my skin enough, but the follies of mankind in general.
Referring to a recent good read, Charles McKay's Extraordinary popular delusion's and the madness of crowds.
 
One would have to be getting a bit concerned about the incredible run the Chinese stock market is having, reportedly opening up to a million new trading accounts a week, with incredible growth in margin loans in China.
It could well double or triple before it fails, but it will be massive if it fails.
Its starting to look like a few of mankind's previous follies that McKay talks about.
That sort of rise cannot go on without  a correction, lets hope it doesn't take the rest of us with it!
It might be worth looking at history, McKay is remarkably insightful for his time, given that it was written in 1841
 
The Missisipi Scheme, The South Sea bubble,  Tulipmania, The Alchmists etc, its happened plenty of times before.
We as a species may have come a long way technically in the last 150 years , but rest assured its unlikely evolution has had time in to change us enough to make us any smarter than the Dutch in there pursuit of Tulips in their time.
So I think its important to be vigilant in our pursuit of health as much as our prosperity.
 
 
 
 

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