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Tuesday 3 November 2015

The best way to stimulate the economy might be to raise interest rates, not lower them!


Its interesting to see that lowering interest rates doesn't stimulate the economy anymore.
Are they using the right vehicle? or using the vehicle incorrectly? or do we need a different drug or no drug?

Effectively most western countries have the Japanese problem of an ageing population.
I am sure our economists are underestimating this globally.

For the first time ever there are the same amount of 15 year olds as we have 65 year olds.
Source Aust Bureau of Statistics,  click above link for info

Most 65 year old's have paid off their mortgage, so don't benefit from lower interest rates

The best way to stimulate the economy may be to to raise interest rates not drop them.

This would give more disposable income from term deposits, getting them to spend it of course might be a bigger task.

On a recent caravaning trip I was speaking to a service station owner and asked him whether the grey nomad phenomenon was a big help to his business.

He was pretty non committal, and commented "the bastards are that miserable, to save fuel, they wait for the wind to be blowing the right way before they get on the road".

Pretty funny, but probably a symptom of the reality that low interest rates mean retirees have a much lower disposable income than their nomading counterparts 10 to 15 years ago!

The flip side of course is that higher interest rates might put pressure on business.

But rates are at 40 year lows, and interest on a loan if your a business if fully tax deductible.
So effectively if a business cant afford to borrow at current levels, it probably isn't much of a business.
And if they are not borrowing now, a rate cut probably isn't going to stimulate them to do anything!

Not dissimilar to my health, with current drugs (embrlizumab (keytruda), and Ipilimunab (Yervoy)  not working on non resectable melanoma in my lungs,  ) I need to evaluate.

Do I need a new drug or a new vehicle?

The challenge is much the same as managing an economy, its not immediately obvious which way to go.

However, “Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.” J.R.R Tolkien 

So I think I will take the drugs,  will start on Dabrafenib and Trametinib.





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