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Tuesday 26 August 2014

Bottom Fishing

We seem to be going through a period where stocks that underperform analysts expectations in the reporting season are getting smashed.

Its always amusing when a company's numbers come in in line with the guidance they provided, but the analysts get it wrong, and the numbers miss their collective expectations.

They all get upset and smash the price, and blame the company!

Never really understood that one, but maybe it gives us an opportunity.

However Bottom fishing is always dangerous, catching falling knives etc., and not sure if it was Buffet or Munger who said, turnaround stories seldom turnaround!! worthy mentors that we should respect.

so we need to be careful.

So why do it?

I think there are often cases where a sector as a whole is on the nose, and some good companies get trashed.

so finding the good companies is the challenge.


BlueScope steel has had a big pullback, might be worth a look, in a very competitive global market,  have paid down debt over the last couple of years and are leaner and meaner.
Chinese competition are facing higher energy and wages costs.
Might be worth a punt.




BRG breville group also had a big pullback on a profit warning.
Don't really understand this stock, as unusual for an Australian company to beat the Chinese at building toasters you would have thought.
But they have been profitable and well run, kicking plenty of goals on a global market.
Worth a punt?

DYOR, and be careful, turn around stories seldom turn around!

Performance
Code Buy date buy price current Sell Date Sell price  Profit(loss)
EPW ERM Power Ltd 21/05/2014 $1.91 $1.92 22/8/2014 $1.92 0.52% sold
CRZ Caresales.com 23/05/2014 $10.53 $11.29 7.22%
CCL Coca Cola Amitel 26/05/2014 $9.69 $9.16 22/8/2014 $9.16 -5.47% sold
SEA Sundance energy 26/05/2014 $1.04 $1.38 33.33%
WTF Wotif.com 28/05/2014 $2.42 $3.33 11/7/2014 $3.34 37.60% takeover
REA Realestate.com 28/05/2014 $44.19 $48.37 9.46%
SUL Supercheap auto 7/07/2014 $9.16 $9.63 5.13%
TRS The Reject Shop 7/07/2014 $9.66 $9.57 -0.93%
CSL CSL Limited 15/07/2014 $68.55 $74.19 8.23%
CTD Corporate Travel Man 15/07/2014 $6.55 $7.07 7.94%
FLT Flight Centre 15/07/2014 $45.84 $47.43 3.47%
SEA Sundance energy 31/07/2014 $1.34 $1.38 2.99%
Avg 9.12%
Performance all ords over Period 
All ords  21/05/2014 5403 5634 4.28%

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