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Friday 11 September 2015

Stocks rise slightly in early trading then dropped suddenly on news that stocks rose slightly in early trading!

This could have been the headline, its more sensible than many!
Im more than a bit over market commentator's, short meaningless sound grabs, we have way too much commentary on the stock market and why it does this or why it did that, most of it irrelevant, with little true meaning, that's my grumble for today!

I don't really understand all the negativity at the moment.

As an old farmer, you get used to commodity price fluctuation, its annoying but just part of doing business, the market is the market, and will sort itself out.

There is an old saying that the cure for low prices is low prices, and the cure for high prices is high prices, that's what a market is!!

Low prices will encourage consumption , high prices will discourage consumption.

We have a situation where most commodities in US dollars are at historic lows, even soft commodities.

But the Aussie dollar (AUD) has dropped dramatically, and given Australia a huge boost in US dollar terms to sell everything we grow, and everything we dig up, at a discount to our global competitors.

Combine the recent pullback in prices and the devaluation of our currency, our stock market listed companies are now trading at a huge discount to where they were 12 months ago.

So lets get ready for a big rally in Australian stocks, particularly companies exporting, they  have just been given a huge tailwind as our dollar has dropped.

Along with cheap oil and iron ore, the world should see huge growth in consumption of all commodities given the current prices.

What's so bad about that!

There are plenty of companies doing very nicely at the moment.

Agriculture is now in a nice position to capitalise, as you can see with a couple below.

Companies like Capilano Honey CZZ seem to be enjoying this.



Even good old Elders ELD, long considered a basket case, has had a very nice run over the last 12 months.


So its not market commentary that's important its still very much the challenge of finding companies that thrive in spite of the commentators.

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